Ten years after the landmark South China Sea arbitration ruling, its biggest legacy may not be the legal defeat of China’s Nine-Dash Line claim but what Beijing’s response revealed about its strategic ambitions. Speaking to StratNewsGlobal, Philippine strategic affairs expert Dr Renato Cruz de Castro argues that China’s refusal to recognise the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration award fundamentally changed how countries across the Indo-Pacific viewed its rise. “The ruling revealed to us what kind of a great power China would be,” he says, arguing that Beijing demonstrated its willingness to ignore international law in pursuit of broader geopolitical objectives. According to de Castro, China’s ambitions extend beyond the South China Sea to controlling the First Island Chain and eventually replacing the United States as the region’s principal maritime power. He believes Japan, Australia, the United States, the European Union and India have all adjusted their strategic outlook in response. For the Philippines, the turning point came after years of attempting accommodation with Beijing. “Whether you appease or challenge China, you will get the same result—subjugation and expansion,” he says. De Castro also highlights India’s growing importance in regional security, describing the BrahMos missile sale as a significant step in strengthening Philippine deterrence. Looking ahead, he argues that New Delhi and Manila should deepen cooperation beyond defence trade into a broader security partnership to counter coercion, influence operations and what he describes as China’s continuing regional expansion.
Source: ‘The Ruling Revealed China’s True Intentions’ | | The Gist
