• TwoTigers24, New York
  • November 8, 2026

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China has been rattling its saber about Taiwan ever since the nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949. If China were to take over Taiwan, about 10% of its population could be targeted for elimination. We spoke with Ethan Gutmann, author of The Xinjiang Procedure, about why 10% of Taiwan’s population is in China’s crosshairs.

Source: 10% of Taiwan DEAD

Summary

This episode of China Unscripted features a discussion with Ethan Gutmann regarding the potential human cost of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. The conversation centers on claims that approximately ten percent of Taiwan's population could face targeted elimination if the island were to fall under Beijing's control. This figure is presented as part of a broader context involving long-standing tensions between China and Taiwan, which date back to 1949 when nationalist forces retreated to the island. Gutmann, an award-winning journalist and author known for his work on human rights issues in regions like Xinjiang, provides analysis on why this specific demographic segment is considered a priority target according to Chinese strategic interests. The program explores the implications of these assertions without validating them as absolute facts, instead framing them within the narrative of ongoing geopolitical conflict. Listeners are directed to the full podcast for an extended examination of these claims and the underlying motivations driving such rhetoric from Beijing. The discussion highlights the severity of the situation as described by the guest, emphasizing the potential scale of loss of life involved in such a hypothetical scenario.

Watch “10% of Taiwan DEAD” on YouTube

Author

YNOT — Two Tigers Consulting From Building Bridges to Watching China About 15 years ago, I founded a small company called Two Tigers Consulting with a relatively simple idea: help American and Chinese businesses work together. At the time, China represented one of the greatest business opportunities in the world — a rapidly expanding economy, extraordinary manufacturing capabilities, and ambitious entrepreneurs eager to build relationships with American companies. Two Tigers Consulting was created to help bridge that gap. For a while, it worked. We attended trade shows, arranged meetings, and introduced companies across both cultures. But after one particularly promising trade show, several Chinese businesspeople we had met were reportedly arrested upon returning to China — apparently for traveling without proper authorization. That experience taught me something important: in China, being a successful entrepreneur doesn't necessarily mean being free to conduct business. As Xi Jinping consolidated power and the political environment shifted, we concluded the potential rewards of doing business in China no longer justified the risks. Rather than abandon our knowledge entirely, Two Tigers evolved into a platform for following, discussing, and analyzing developments inside China — its economy, political leadership, and increasingly complicated relationship with the United States. I want to make absolutely clear that I have tremendous respect for the Chinese people — their entrepreneurs, engineers, and workers are extraordinarily capable. But I also believe China's political system creates fundamental contradictions: enormous private fortunes can be accumulated, yet ultimate political authority remains firmly concentrated, making relationships based on mutual trust and predictable rules extremely difficult to sustain. Today, Two Tigers is an independent publication examining China's achievements, challenges, ambitions, and contradictions — where they intersect with the United States and the broader world. What began as a small business venture now attracts roughly 10,000 visits a day. Understanding China is no longer optional: what happens there affects businesses, economies, and people throughout the world. And that is why Two Tigers continues.

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