• TwoTigers24, New York
  • October 19, 2026

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqNFOxhbBE0

China is responding to the Philippines’ largest-ever Balikatan exercises with military drills of its own, stretching from the South China Sea to waters east of Luzon and into the Western Pacific. Featuring the Liaoning carrier strike group and coordinated naval transits near Japan’s southern islands, Beijing’s actions are being framed as “counter-deterrence.” But are these moves simply signaling — or rehearsals for conflict? As US, Philippine and Japanese forces deepen cooperation along the First Island Chain, China appears to be testing its ability to project power and challenge this alliance. In this episode, we examine the scale and intent of China’s response, the growing “missile arc” strategy and what this evolving dynamic means for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.

Source: Balikatan: China Sends Carrier Strike Group as First Island Chain Deploys Missiles | EP821

Summary

This episode of Taiwan Talks examines China's military response to the Philippines' largest Balikatan exercises, which are taking place in April 2026. Beijing is conducting its own drills stretching from the South China Sea to waters east of Luzon and into the Western Pacific. The segment highlights the deployment of the Liaoning carrier strike group and coordinated naval movements near Japan's southern islands. These actions are framed by Chinese officials as counter-deterrence measures, though analysts question whether they represent mere signaling or rehearsals for potential conflict.

The discussion focuses on how US, Philippine, and Japanese forces are deepening cooperation along the First Island Chain while China tests its ability to project power against this alliance. The program explores the growing missile arc strategy and what these evolving dynamics mean for Taiwan and broader Indo-Pacific security. Experts analyze the scale and intent behind Beijing's maneuvers, including hints of new carrier capabilities. The episode features insights from guests Alexander Huang, Jason Hsu, and Guermantes Lailari, who discuss regional security implications alongside host Yin Khvat and consultant Max Yu.

Watch “Balikatan: China Sends Carrier Strike Group as First Island Chain Deploys Missiles | EP821” on YouTube

Author

YNOT — Two Tigers Consulting From Building Bridges to Watching China About 15 years ago, I founded a small company called Two Tigers Consulting with a relatively simple idea: help American and Chinese businesses work together. At the time, China represented one of the greatest business opportunities in the world — a rapidly expanding economy, extraordinary manufacturing capabilities, and ambitious entrepreneurs eager to build relationships with American companies. Two Tigers Consulting was created to help bridge that gap. For a while, it worked. We attended trade shows, arranged meetings, and introduced companies across both cultures. But after one particularly promising trade show, several Chinese businesspeople we had met were reportedly arrested upon returning to China — apparently for traveling without proper authorization. That experience taught me something important: in China, being a successful entrepreneur doesn't necessarily mean being free to conduct business. As Xi Jinping consolidated power and the political environment shifted, we concluded the potential rewards of doing business in China no longer justified the risks. Rather than abandon our knowledge entirely, Two Tigers evolved into a platform for following, discussing, and analyzing developments inside China — its economy, political leadership, and increasingly complicated relationship with the United States. I want to make absolutely clear that I have tremendous respect for the Chinese people — their entrepreneurs, engineers, and workers are extraordinarily capable. But I also believe China's political system creates fundamental contradictions: enormous private fortunes can be accumulated, yet ultimate political authority remains firmly concentrated, making relationships based on mutual trust and predictable rules extremely difficult to sustain. Today, Two Tigers is an independent publication examining China's achievements, challenges, ambitions, and contradictions — where they intersect with the United States and the broader world. What began as a small business venture now attracts roughly 10,000 visits a day. Understanding China is no longer optional: what happens there affects businesses, economies, and people throughout the world. And that is why Two Tigers continues.

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