Day: July 31, 2025

A potential blockade of Taiwan burst into the American consciousness in 2022 when China showed its displeasure about then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit by surrounding the island with missile impacts. This and subsequent Chinese exercises appeared to simulate a quarantine or blockade. This possibility was not a surprise to regional experts and the Taiwanese themselves, who had long been aware of this threat. Among the five types of joint campaigns discussed in Chinese doctrinal writing is the “joint blockade campaign” (联合封锁战役), and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has signaled that it would consider such blockade actions in the event that it took action against Taiwan. Such a blockade would not just affect China, Taiwan, and the United States. The disruption of international trade, particularly restrictions on computer chip production, would affect every country on the planet.Given this political and security environment, it would be prudent to study all forms that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could take in order to inform the policies of Taiwan, Japan, and the United States. Yet, there has been little agreement about what a “blockade” would entail, and still less quantitative analysis of possible scenarios.This report proposes a framework for understanding the range of blockade scenarios, analyzes them with a series of 23 wargames, and assesses the operational challenges that the respective parties would face in implementing and countering a blockade. The project does not argue that conflict, including a blockade, is inevitable or even necessarily likely. However, the project does argue that conflict is possible, given China’s commitment to reunification, using force if necessary, and its continuing military buildup. This project, therefore, concludes by proposing policy changes to better deter a blockade and to cope with one should it occur.This project was funded by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation.